US Evangelicals and Republicans are less supportive of gay marriage than they were a few years ago, according to poll data accessed by demographics analyst Ryan Burge at his Graphs about Religion Substack.
Citing General Survey figures, Burke demonstrated that the rapid increase in support for same-sex marriage has levelled off or slightly declined. “While the LGBT community made huge strides in advocating for the rights of same-sex couples, that came to a screeching halt in 2021 and 2022. Support for homosexual couples having the right to marry hit a brick wall at about 65%. The latest number stands at 67% – no different than it was four years earlier. Between 2014 and 2018, support rose 11 points. Between 2018 and 2022, it declined by a point.”
Ryan demonstrates that while Democrat support for same-sex marriage continues to rise slowly, this is more than offset by a decline in Republican support since 2018 or thereaboutas.
The same pattern shows up for Evangelical, Catholic and mainline Christians.
For those suprised by the including of Mainline church attenders, these churches contain large numbers of people who voted for Trump, despite the progressivism of their denominational leaders.
But the effect does not show for black protestants
Possible reasons for what Burge labels a “backlash” might include:
• A general conservative shift, captured Trump who won the national popular vote with a plurality of 49.8%. An increase in votes for Trump 62,984,828 in 2016, 74,224,319 in 2020, 77,302,580 in 2024, while the democrat vote decreased frpm its 2020 peak.
• A “Trump effect enboldening concevatives to be more open about their views – and tp tell pollsters what they think. this involves the “shy Trump supporter” effect being less apparent
• A reaction against (some?) Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) programs, seeting them as heavy handed or unfair.
• Church realignments – the growth of more conseravtive cburches: non-denominational, Anglican and methodist.
Image: Reynolds Peak in the Cascades Image credit: Ron Clausen Wikimedia.