The Other Cheek asked two Christians who are seasoned observers of Victorian politics, to look at the state election. Both predict a victory for Labor led by Daniel Andrews, possibly with a reduced majority.
This is despite the memes on social media pointing out the census numbers of religious Victorians that some hopeful conservatives are posting on social media.
Paul Arnott a former ABC journalist, breaks with alleged ABC groupthink, representing coalition supporters, while Joel Deane, a former speechwriter for two former premiers remains true to the Labor cause.
1. Key Issues for Christians.
“I don’t know what key issues Christians are thinking about, says Joel Deane. “That’s because it’s a group that’s too diverse to throw a blanket over.”
“Judging by the Federal Election in May, though, it’s fair to assume that the electorate is thinking about costs of living (including rising interest rates and falling wages), the dire housing market (for first home buyers, renters, retirees and people with disability), a Treaty with Aboriginal Victorians, meaningful action on climate change (including a transition away from brown coal power stations) and integrity in government. Not all of those issues are purely state-related, but that doesn’t matter. People are rightly anxious about the future and are prepared to punish incumbent governments.
“I suspect that most Christian voters will be thinking about some or all of those issues as November poll approaches. Some will also be thinking about other issues ranging from abortion to euthanasia to religious vilification to freedom of speech.”
Deane believes that some Christians will be affected by the ‘Christian Nationalist’ movement in the US which he finds deeply disturbing. “I’m disturbed by it because it’s driven by a paranoid and unsubstantiated belief that Christians are persecuted,” he says. “This paranoia is part of a propaganda campaign that is pushing for a crypto-fascist form of government that purports to be about Christianity but is really about race.”
Arnott sees American parallels, but simply sees this as similar concerns being raised, of government interference in Christian bodies. He raises school chaplaincy – a Federal issue as a primary concern for him. “ I’m a, um, Kids Hope mentor in a primary school, but I have quite a bit to do with, uh, the chaplain and she is keyed in with the, to organisations down here, and there is a deal of anxiety about what the federal government may be planning to do. You know, they, they’re reviewing a whole chaplaincy system and I suspect that, um, a number of people are feeling that chaplains may be scrapped and, um, replaced with psychologists or social workers or wellbeing consultants.“ he believes that schools are already being pressured to get rid of religious chaplains.
“The euthanasia legislation here in Victoria, is of concern to many Christians, as is the [“conversion ban “] legislation that bans any kind of attempt to influence somebody’s, gender or sexuality. I’ve spoken to a number of, Christians who feel very concerned about that legislation in Victoria. Because, you know, if somebody, for example, came to me who was gay or trans and wanted to have a conversation about it, wasn’t feeling entirely relaxed with it, and asked me to pray for them the legislation, could well mean that, I could be charged with an offence.”
Arnott, realist, see that not every Christian will see things the same way as him. “I suspect the Christian community is fairly divided on these topics. It’s much more conservative people who are concerned about the conversion bill and the school chaplaincy and euthanasia. I don’t think the concern about euthanasia has gone away. It just died down a little.”
2. The Thorburn effect: Premier Daniel Andrews attacked the views of City on a Hill church, which opposes abortion and supports Man-Women marriage, regarding homosexual sex as sin.
““Those views are absolutely appalling. I don’t support those views; that kind of intolerance, that kind of hatred, bigotry is just wrong,” Andrews said. ““All of you know my views on these things. Those sort of attitudes are simply wrong, and to dress that up as anything other than bigotry is just obviously false.”
On Sunday, City on a Hill’s Senior Minister Guy Mason upheld those positions telling the church, “I think for anyone to be cancelled because of their faith is a very dangerous idea. I’m sorry we’re at a point in time when people are forced to make a choice between their faith and position in society.”
Matthew Guy told 3AW “What are we now banning people from going to church, banning people from going to a synagogue, banning people from going to a mosque? This is ridiculous,” but did not endorse the church’s position.
Arnott believes that Daniel Andrews’ vehement attack on the City on a Hill church will swing some votes. ”Andrews has inadvertently provided Matthew our [the opposition leader] with an issue that taps into the anxieties of many religious Victorians and may become an important factor in determining whether he is returned with a majority or minority government.”
“I think a number of conservative Christians who voted Labor at the last Vic election may be inclined to move back to the Libs as a result of the vehemence with which Daniel Andrews attacked City on a Hill. Opposition leader Matthew Guy and then Peter Dutton both attacked the premier over his comments. City on a Hill may be theologically conservative but it has a large ministry to the homeless in the city and is well regarded by many non-religious Melbournites.”
The Thorburn effect may overcome what Arnott as the Liberal/National opposition parties being quiet on issues like euthanasia and the conversion ban legislation. This will have disappointed some coalition supporters and the Thorburn effect will be to reassure them. But they would vote conservative anyway.
Deane believes Thorburn will have little effect on the election. “I don’t think that the Thorburn issue will change the way people vote.”
He sees the issue as primarily about one man’s conflict of interest.
“The fact that Andrew Thorburn stepped down from his job is not an attack on people of faith. Mr Thorburn had a conflict of interest. The church that he holds a leadership position in did publish material that was offensive to a significant proportion of the membership of the football club he wanted to lead. It would’ve been hypocritical for him to hold both leadership positions. He had to choose which organisation he wanted to lead. And he made that choice. That’s the right and honourable thing to do.
“Another general point – and this is not in any way referring to or about Mr Thorburn. Freedom of speech does not mean freedom from consequences. What do I mean? This. In this multicultural, pluralistic society in which we live, everyone is free to speak their mind, but we share a responsibility to not defame, insult, vilify or attack our fellow citizens.
“The bottom line, for me, is that our public debate is far too black and white. We need to listen to and ask questions of each other. And we need to be far more tolerant of difference.”
3. The outcome.
“According to the pollsters, the Andrews Government will win – and, at worst, will be returned as a minority government,” Deane predicts.
“My view is that most Victorians won’t start thinking about who they’re going to vote for until after the Melbourne Cup. A significant number will make their mind up in the last three or four days of the campaign.
“I’m expecting that both major parties will lose seats, and that independent, Green and Teal candidates will do well.
“It’s going to be a volatile and messy election because our world is volatile and messy.”
There will be a post-Covid affect according to Arnott. It won’t simply be the anti-tax right. “I suspect, you know, there, there may be some people who are maybe more centrist who were pretty disillusioned by some of the stuff that happened. And I think as time has gone on and we’ve recognised the enormous impact that the lockdowns had. I mean, we had six lockdowns. We were the most lockdowned city in the world, and, it had terrible effects here. You know, older people in hospital and aged care had to die alone because their families weren’t allowed to see them. And yeah, I think that will be a factor in the election. I think there’ll be some people who really want to make labor pay for that,
But Arnott agrees with Deane on the final result. “My assessment would be that Daniel Andrews probably will be returned, Labor will be returned, but I suspect with a reduced majority. You know, it’s not beyond the bounds of possibility that they could end up in minority government. Having said that, my impression of the opposition is that they’re really not cutting through Matthew Guy, even though he’s reinvented himself, isn’t cutting through in the same way that Daniel Andrews seems to.”
He believes there is a religious vote, and it will have an effect as in the last Federal Election, but will not determine the final result. However, in his view the conservative minor parties such as Family First won’t play much of a role.“The smaller party that is making a lot of noise at the moment is the Greens and, I think they’re hoping to pick up some seats probably from Labor.”