The last Newspoll of the year, published on boxing day, breaks out the Christian vote, with a 47:53 first preference vote for Labor and the coalition, respectively. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is the better person for the job by a wider margin scoring 52 to 34 over Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.
First-preference votes by the self-identified Christians were
Labor 34
Coalition 43
Greens 6
One Nation 2
UAP 2
Others 5
By contrast, “no religion” voters gave a big majority of their two-party-preferred vote to Labor 40:27.
The Auistralian’s political editor Simon Benson notes “Labor leading the Coalition for the first time across every sector by age, education, household income and working status with the exception of retirees, those over 65, and Christian voters.”
The poll showed Labor support lifting across most states, with a possible gain of six seats in the House of representatives if swings were uniform.
Benson noted a big gap between Christian voters and the no religion group reversing their voting preferences, indicating religion is a factor in how Austrlians vote.
Labor gained votes from the minor right wing parties in the overall Newspoll, but the results for Christians showed that those parties maintained their minority appeal.
The Greens vote by Christians was 6 per cent, compared to 11 per cent overall and 17 per cent for the no religion group.
However a longer trend revealed in National Church Life Survey results shows a gradual erosion of Coalition support but the Labor vote remaining steady.
The NCLS indicated a shift to the parties like Family First in the years leading up to their 2016 survey. The Newspoll is not fine-grained enough to check if that vote holds. Factors like the Christian Democratic Party being wound up, and the Family First merging with Cory Bernardi’s ill-fated Australian conservatives in the 2019 election before being relaunched means the next NCLS result will be critical for these smaller parties.
Strange how Christians supporting the Coalition even post-election go on bypass for the Coalition institutional corruption (see AAT) and lies (see Robodebt), but at the same time are relieved that the Albanese Government is there to act as a conscience to expose these and set up the mechanisms to deal with them.