There are just over a million fewer Christians in Australia according to the 2021 census, than there were according to the 2016 census.1,051,786 to be exact. The actual fall in numbers is greater if you take into account the 290,200 Christian migrants who came to Australia during the five years between counts.
But despite an overall decline, some denominations or classifications showed an actual increase.
“Christian, not further defined” increased by 76,069. This may be made up of people not wanting to define themselves by denomination, with a second possibility that Hillsong attendees did not have their denomination listed. In 2016 they would have been part of Australian Christian Churches.
All churches will have a share in the 688,440 souls who simply answered “Christian” on their census form.
If a Hillsonger went for a “Christian not further defined” increase, it might explain a surprising fall in the number of Pentecostals overall, down by 4581 to 255,989.
Census figures for smaller denominations with less historical cachet tend to be closer to those attending churches, or recently in touch.
Some showed increases
• Baptists showed a slight increase from 2,192 to 347,334.
• Seventh-day Adventists increased by 717 to 63,662.
- The greatest rate of increase was reported for independent Evangelical Churches, up from 3,351 to 7,811.
- If it had been included, Hillsong would have recorded their first result as a new denomination.
Three of the most dramatic falls come from the churches with greater historical presence and hence many “nominals’ who will have been likely to switch to the increasingly socially acceptable ‘no religion”
Catholics decreased by 235,662, dipping below 5 million to 4,994,188. But the Maronite branch of the Catholic church, counted separately, increased by 10,580 to 47,014.
Anglicans dramatically decreased by 604,754 to 2,495,818. That this fall is largely amongst “nominals’ is demonstrated by the Sydney fall, where the church attendance figures are steady. The “census Anglicans” in that city fell by 101564 to 478,777, a similar rate of decline to the national figure.
The Uniting church decreased by 196,923 to 673,260.
The other small protestant denominations faced declines as well.
• Church of Christ (conference) declined by 3147 to 30,525;
- Presbyterian (dramatically declined by 110624 to 402136
- Salvation Army dramatically decreased by 13583 to 35,356
Four churches, Catholic, Anglican, Uniting and Presbyterian account for 79.9 per cent of the decline. They also form 76 per cent of census Christians.
One question the census does not answer is “How many Christians are there in Australia?” Likely, the figure is somewhere between the number of Australians attending church and the number saying they are Christian in the census. This means a percentage between 13 per cent – the weekly church attendance according to the national church Life Survey (NCLS) Australian Community Survey, 21 per cent – the monthly attendance figure, and 43.9 per cent – the census figure for Christians.
A second question, is “have the number of Christians dropped or is it that “nominal” Christians are changing their census response?”
The Australian Community Survey results would suggest that a stable or rising proportion of Australians are attending church. This may give credibility to the often cited argument that nominals are changing their census response, and we are moving to a position where only the truly committed will declare themselves Christian.