Last year Andrew Turner the director of the Australian Baptist Ministries “Crossover” evangelism group noticed a outstanding stat that he had to look at twice: “I blinked and had to look at the number a second time: 34%! Each year we gather the number of baptisms reported by Australian Baptist state associations, and there was a 34% increase from 2022 to 2023.”
This stat reveals the effort behind the surge that now puts Baptists ahead of Anglicans in the “league table” of church attendance figures recently released by NCLS Research. (See earlier The Other Cheek report “Church attendance continues to recover after Covid, Baptists and Pentecostals rise“)
Why posit an “effort” as an explanation? One might say “strategy”, “leadership” or “gospel focus” instead of “effort,” but something, perhaps a complicated something has gone on. Because the Baptists like some other denominations in the stats have grown, when other very similar denominations have not grown or shrunk.
Compare the Baptists and the Church of Christ, often regarded as similar fellowships. Both are insist on belivers’ baptism, by immersion, congregationalist church structures, hold to non-Calvinist theology.
The Church of Christ has declined in numbers of people attending from 45,100 in 2001 to 29,300 in 2024, meaning it has declined to 65 per cent of its size at the turn of the century.
Meanwhile the Baptists have increased from 112,200 in 2001 to 139,900 in 2024, meaning the Baptists are now 136 oer cent of their 2001 size.
The Other Cheek will pursue the story of why the Baptists, and other churches have grown.
Another example of where one particular denomination has grown while others have not is In the reformed evangelical part of the Australian church scene. The Fellowship of Independed Evangelical Churches began in 2002 is the standout for growth. It had an attendance of 11,500 in 2021 and 15,800 in 2024. Strikingly the Presbyterian Church of Australia has the same attendance in 2024 as it had in 2002 – 35,000. The Christian Reformed Church has declined in that period from 7,100 to 6,100 – 86 per cent of its former size.
There is also a difference between the sites, with the NT and NSW leading the pack.
| Area | Weekly attendance | Percentage of population |
| Australia | 1,305,200 | 4.8 per cent |
| NSW/ACT | 495,700 | 5.5 per cent |
| NT | 15,200 | 5.9 per cent |
| Queensland | 232,500 | 4.1 per cent |
| SA | 88,600 | 4.7 per cent |
| Tasmania | 26,800 | 4.7 per cent |
| Victoria | 315,900 | 4.5 per cent |
| WA | 130,500 | 4.4 per cent |
It might come as a shock that Queensland often thought of as a conservative state has the lowest percentage of weekly church attendance.
Casting around for reasons that the NT and NSW/ACT do well, a reader helpfully suggests that the First Nation population in the Northern Territory and the Sydney Anglican influence in NSW are logical explantations.
The First Nations population is notably more Christian than the non indiginous population, according to Census data – and indigenous people make up 30.8 per cent of the territory population in 2021.
The effect of Sydney Anglicans on the NSW/ACT church attendance can be gauged by comparing the Melboune and Sydney Anglican attendance in their similar sized cities. The Melbourne diocese drew a weekly attendance of 13,000 in 2023 according to a Melbourne Anglican report – down from 20,000 in 2005. The Sydney Anglican Adult attendance was 47,801 in 2013. and 44,592 in 2023 according to a Sydney Standing Committee report on attendance. The presence of FIEC church attenders, largely concentrated in NSW will also make a difference, and Hillsong too.
Finally a word on a possible political effect.
The weekly church attendance is 4.8 per cent of the Australian population. A 2024 Gallup poll had 21 per cent of Americans saying they attend church every week, and a further 9 per cent saying nearly every week. For any political movement seeking to build a church attender base in Australia, similar to what haoppens in the US, these numbers are daunting.
Image: Kalbar Community Baptist Church, Queensland. Image Credit: berrtknot / Wikimedia
Sydney Anglicanism is one contributing factor in NSW, but Sydney’s much higher levels of immigration would likely be the main driver of higher rates of church attendance.
Immigration certainly boosts church attendance, and hold up the Catholic figures – think Filipinos and Maronites. But is Sydney’s immigration figures much higher than Melbourne?